True Number of Patients with COVID-19 Could Be 6 Times Greater

According to a newly modeled estimate from the U.S., Australia, Canada, South Korea, and 11 European countries, the actual number of patients infected with SARS-CoV-2 could be 6 times greater than the official figures.True Number of Patients with COVID-19 Could Be 6 Times Greater

The new model was developed by scientists from Australia. The model uses the "backcasting" method, which projects the number of new daily fatal cases in reverse, from the time of death to the time of infection. This method allows scientists to avoid the usage of epidemiological and serological data, which comes with testing limitations.

The authors write in their paper: "Unlike reported infections based on RNA tests, backcasting is not dependent on the coverage or efficacy of testing regimes, which can be very different across jurisdictions and over time."

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